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Could global warming lead to quieter hurricane seasons? Experts say yes, with a caveat

If there is any positive to come out of global warming it could be this: Its effects may work to reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes we see in the future, according to the nation’s leading storm scientists.

That comes with a (significant) caveat. Experts say warming-induced sea level rise means the wall of water that surges into coastal areas during hurricanes will get more deadly and destructive with each storm that hits, especially in places like south Louisiana.

Hurricane experts gathered in New Orleans from Monday to Thursday last week for the National Hurricane Conference, an event focused on hurricane preparedness. The closing panel on Wednesday (April 24) focused on storm forecasting and our changing climate.

Dr. Christopher Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, noted hurricanes “are natural heat engines,” relying on moisture and heat to grow. One might assume global warming would boost the strength and frequency of storms. But models show global warming may actually increase the speed and dryness of trade winds that cut across the lower Caribbean and into the Atlantic Ocean, a factor that could work to “tear hurricanes apart” in the future, he said.